Friday, January 23, 2004
I'm going to analyze Howard Dean today.
I was originally going to stop after what I wrote earlier about the two parents of "bipolar children". But hey, I've got the energy for it, and I'm bored. So let's go.
The plan was to do Bush first tommorrow. But Bush can wait until after New Hampshire. He'll be there no matter what. I want to do the Democratic candidates before the nominating process progresses too far. I will lay out the case both for and against all of the Democratic nominee hopefuls. I will leave out any strengths or weaknesses that are common to all or most candidates (ie. their anti-war stance, the proposals on socializing medicine).
Let's start with the candidate that's the most fun to talk about, your hero and mine.....
How it all began:
Howard Dean, by even being involved in this discussion, has accomplished a huge feat. The former Governor of Vermont was not considered to be a big shot by the Democratic Party. His running for President should have been as inconsequential as most other candidates. Yet, by turning to the internet and capitalizing on the feverish resentment some have for Bush, Dean created a fanatically loyal supporter base that provided him with large amounts of campaign finances. This allowed him to get his campaign off the ground. The media found his staunch anti-Bush stance captivating, and gave him the exposure that eventually led to Former Vice President Al Gore's endorsement, legitimizing his candidacy.
Where he stands now:
Two weeks before the Iowa Caucus, where the first votes are cast for Presidential nominees, Dean had a commanding lead over his competition. No one was particularly close, and Dean was touted as almost having locked the nomination up. During the two weeks leading up to Iowa, Dean made a number of political missteps (mostly statements that were either inconsistent, vindictive, or factually unsupported). He also, by virtue of his demeanor during debates and town hall meetings, started becoming viewed as either unelectable or flat out mean. In either case, Dean's lead evaporated, and he finished a distant third to John Kerry and John Edwards. As of now, he trails both in New Hampshire (traditionally the first primary held) by a significant margin.
The case for Howard Dean:
Dean's main strength lies in his ability to motivate his supporters. He has a fanatically loyal fanbase, and Dean nurtures that loyalty by binding them together as an Internet community. Dean's official site has numberous links to blogs that support him, and readers can comment freely. This means that his supporters are more likely to turn out to vote than the average constituent. If he can claim the nomination, he has a chance of reaching voters who are Bush-supporters grudgingly, or voters who don't really care about politics.
His experience and credentials are almost entirely domestic-based. Dean's been involved in politics for about 20 years. More than half of that time was spent as a Lieutenent Governor or Governor. He has managed to balance the budget of Vermont despite there being no requirement by the state for him to do so. Health care coverage is wide in Vermont. Income taxes are high, but reasonable in comparison to other states in the region.
His views on universal health care and gay marriage mean that those who vote solely on those issues should support him.
Finally, Dean can point to the influence he has had on the Democratic race. Due to his surge into the race, almost all of the other candidates have adopted his staunch anti-Bush rhetoric. He can therefore point to instances in which the other candidates at one time supported the very Bush causes that they now claim are ruining the country. Dean has consistency problems as well, but not in the Bush-hating arena. He is the original.
The case against Howard Dean:
Howard Dean's financial records as Governor of Vermont are suspect. Dean did indeed keep the budget of Vermont balanced during his tenure. However, the sole reason for his being able to do so was that when his budget fell short (and it frequently did), property taxes went up astronomically. He may have balanced a budget, but by most definitions he is not a fiscal conservative.
He has no experience in military or foreign matters, which would've been fine in 2000. Post 9/11, experience in these areas is important to voters. Dean has none.
However, Dean's main vulnerabilities lie in his unstable personality. Already his cause has been weakened by his admitted habit of saying something without thinking about it. It started with his comment that "the most interesting theory I've heard (about Bush's alleged surpressing of a 9/11 report) - which is nothing more than a theory, it can't be proved - is that Bush was warned ahead of time by the Saudis." A couple of days later he said that he never professed to believing the theory, and called it crazy. Many people still took it negatively, stating that it was inappropriate for someone seeking the Presidency to put forth such a theory. He also stated that the world was "no safer without Saddam Hussein", a ridiculous statement to make in light of the unbelievable horrors that have taken place in Iraq.
The main manifestation of his unstableness (and therefore, his greatest weakness) is his propensity to say things or take positions that he cannot possibly support, either because of his history or his ignorance. His stance on the war was that it was wrong for us to act unilaterally in sending troops to Iraq without the U.N.'s approval.
Yet in 1996 Dean wrote President Clinton a letter urging him to take unilateral action in Bosnia for humanitarian purposes despite the U.S. having no security concerns in the area. He stated in the letter that if NATO and the U.N. were unprepared to act, then we had to be prepared to step in regardless. He supported bombing and air raids, but did not want to send in troops.
Since it would be completely braindead to say that there was no humanitarian reason to go into Iraq, this leads one to conclude that Dean's real reasons for his opposition of the Iraqi war are threefold:
1. Iraq was not worth the deaths of our troops.
2. It would potentially give opposing nations the idea that the U.S. was a bully.
3. It is politically advantageous for Dean to take this position.
Dean might get support on the first two points. But people now see that the third point is a factor in Dean's decision-making process, and it is hurting him.
In fact, Dean's propensity for taking positions that he thinks will get him votes has been clearly brought to light with his inserting Jesus Christ into his campaign. Dean had previously stated that God had no place in political campaigns. Furthermore, he claimed to be a very religious person, one whom prayed and read the bible every day. He claimed to know a lot about the bible.
So when he was asked what his favorite book in the New Testament was, Dean responded "Job."
Job is actually one of the more famous Old Testament books. It would be a pretty huge mistake to make for your average church goer. For someone who claims to be an expert on the bible, it simply proves those claims false. The mistake might be forgivable if it had been said by someone whom had a history of supporting religion. Dean's history had been the opposite. Therefore, the reasonable conclusion is that Dean's position on religion is for purely political reasons.
Finally, Dean placed a 10-year seal on any records pertaining to what he did as Governor for what he admitted to be political reasons. This is not an action someone who holds an office of public trust should ever take. The people, as employers of the government, have a right to analyze your actions as their employee. To seal gubernatorial records is an unbelievable breech of the public trust.
Is he deserving of the nomination?
If you are a proponent of socialized medical care and education, want business to pony up a bigger share of their money, or are a proponent of gay marriage, then Dean is the best choice for you. As long as you don't care what it costs to get your way on these issues, and have no interest in any others, that is. Dean will give you all of those things, and will do it while not increasing the deficit.
If you are not a one-issue voter, then there are better choices than Dean no matter what positions you hold.
Is he deserving of the Presidency?
No. His lack of experience in foreign and military matters overwhelms his domestic experience. He is inconsistent in most of his positions, and does not properly present his stance on the positions he is consistent on. He has shown a propensity to mislead and outright lie in order to attract voters. His temperment is not condusive to the job requirements.
Can he win the nomination?
He still has a good shot. However, he has to seriously repair the damage he has done to his own image in order to make a run. If he finishes anywhere below a strong second in New Hampshire, he's done.
If nominated, could he beat Bush?
Probably not. Dean's only chance would be to have his energized and loyal voter base encourage more people to turnout and vote. His followers and his presence on the internet would have to work together to create a propoganda machine the likes of which never before seen in America. That would still only give him a slim chance.
Awful, irresponsible candidate. He's not the best candidate in the field, he has virtually no shot at beating Bush, and if elected President might very well dig a domestic and foreign policy hole that we would be hard pressed to get back out of. He has very serious credibility and moral issues, and if you are at all reasonable, you will find a better candidate to spend your vote on.
I was originally going to stop after what I wrote earlier about the two parents of "bipolar children". But hey, I've got the energy for it, and I'm bored. So let's go.
The plan was to do Bush first tommorrow. But Bush can wait until after New Hampshire. He'll be there no matter what. I want to do the Democratic candidates before the nominating process progresses too far. I will lay out the case both for and against all of the Democratic nominee hopefuls. I will leave out any strengths or weaknesses that are common to all or most candidates (ie. their anti-war stance, the proposals on socializing medicine).
Let's start with the candidate that's the most fun to talk about, your hero and mine.....
Howard Dean
Former Governor of Vermont
How it all began:
Howard Dean, by even being involved in this discussion, has accomplished a huge feat. The former Governor of Vermont was not considered to be a big shot by the Democratic Party. His running for President should have been as inconsequential as most other candidates. Yet, by turning to the internet and capitalizing on the feverish resentment some have for Bush, Dean created a fanatically loyal supporter base that provided him with large amounts of campaign finances. This allowed him to get his campaign off the ground. The media found his staunch anti-Bush stance captivating, and gave him the exposure that eventually led to Former Vice President Al Gore's endorsement, legitimizing his candidacy.
Where he stands now:
Two weeks before the Iowa Caucus, where the first votes are cast for Presidential nominees, Dean had a commanding lead over his competition. No one was particularly close, and Dean was touted as almost having locked the nomination up. During the two weeks leading up to Iowa, Dean made a number of political missteps (mostly statements that were either inconsistent, vindictive, or factually unsupported). He also, by virtue of his demeanor during debates and town hall meetings, started becoming viewed as either unelectable or flat out mean. In either case, Dean's lead evaporated, and he finished a distant third to John Kerry and John Edwards. As of now, he trails both in New Hampshire (traditionally the first primary held) by a significant margin.
The case for Howard Dean:
Dean's main strength lies in his ability to motivate his supporters. He has a fanatically loyal fanbase, and Dean nurtures that loyalty by binding them together as an Internet community. Dean's official site has numberous links to blogs that support him, and readers can comment freely. This means that his supporters are more likely to turn out to vote than the average constituent. If he can claim the nomination, he has a chance of reaching voters who are Bush-supporters grudgingly, or voters who don't really care about politics.
His experience and credentials are almost entirely domestic-based. Dean's been involved in politics for about 20 years. More than half of that time was spent as a Lieutenent Governor or Governor. He has managed to balance the budget of Vermont despite there being no requirement by the state for him to do so. Health care coverage is wide in Vermont. Income taxes are high, but reasonable in comparison to other states in the region.
His views on universal health care and gay marriage mean that those who vote solely on those issues should support him.
Finally, Dean can point to the influence he has had on the Democratic race. Due to his surge into the race, almost all of the other candidates have adopted his staunch anti-Bush rhetoric. He can therefore point to instances in which the other candidates at one time supported the very Bush causes that they now claim are ruining the country. Dean has consistency problems as well, but not in the Bush-hating arena. He is the original.
The case against Howard Dean:
Howard Dean's financial records as Governor of Vermont are suspect. Dean did indeed keep the budget of Vermont balanced during his tenure. However, the sole reason for his being able to do so was that when his budget fell short (and it frequently did), property taxes went up astronomically. He may have balanced a budget, but by most definitions he is not a fiscal conservative.
He has no experience in military or foreign matters, which would've been fine in 2000. Post 9/11, experience in these areas is important to voters. Dean has none.
However, Dean's main vulnerabilities lie in his unstable personality. Already his cause has been weakened by his admitted habit of saying something without thinking about it. It started with his comment that "the most interesting theory I've heard (about Bush's alleged surpressing of a 9/11 report) - which is nothing more than a theory, it can't be proved - is that Bush was warned ahead of time by the Saudis." A couple of days later he said that he never professed to believing the theory, and called it crazy. Many people still took it negatively, stating that it was inappropriate for someone seeking the Presidency to put forth such a theory. He also stated that the world was "no safer without Saddam Hussein", a ridiculous statement to make in light of the unbelievable horrors that have taken place in Iraq.
The main manifestation of his unstableness (and therefore, his greatest weakness) is his propensity to say things or take positions that he cannot possibly support, either because of his history or his ignorance. His stance on the war was that it was wrong for us to act unilaterally in sending troops to Iraq without the U.N.'s approval.
Yet in 1996 Dean wrote President Clinton a letter urging him to take unilateral action in Bosnia for humanitarian purposes despite the U.S. having no security concerns in the area. He stated in the letter that if NATO and the U.N. were unprepared to act, then we had to be prepared to step in regardless. He supported bombing and air raids, but did not want to send in troops.
Since it would be completely braindead to say that there was no humanitarian reason to go into Iraq, this leads one to conclude that Dean's real reasons for his opposition of the Iraqi war are threefold:
1. Iraq was not worth the deaths of our troops.
2. It would potentially give opposing nations the idea that the U.S. was a bully.
3. It is politically advantageous for Dean to take this position.
Dean might get support on the first two points. But people now see that the third point is a factor in Dean's decision-making process, and it is hurting him.
In fact, Dean's propensity for taking positions that he thinks will get him votes has been clearly brought to light with his inserting Jesus Christ into his campaign. Dean had previously stated that God had no place in political campaigns. Furthermore, he claimed to be a very religious person, one whom prayed and read the bible every day. He claimed to know a lot about the bible.
So when he was asked what his favorite book in the New Testament was, Dean responded "Job."
Job is actually one of the more famous Old Testament books. It would be a pretty huge mistake to make for your average church goer. For someone who claims to be an expert on the bible, it simply proves those claims false. The mistake might be forgivable if it had been said by someone whom had a history of supporting religion. Dean's history had been the opposite. Therefore, the reasonable conclusion is that Dean's position on religion is for purely political reasons.
Finally, Dean placed a 10-year seal on any records pertaining to what he did as Governor for what he admitted to be political reasons. This is not an action someone who holds an office of public trust should ever take. The people, as employers of the government, have a right to analyze your actions as their employee. To seal gubernatorial records is an unbelievable breech of the public trust.
Conclusions
Is he deserving of the nomination?
If you are a proponent of socialized medical care and education, want business to pony up a bigger share of their money, or are a proponent of gay marriage, then Dean is the best choice for you. As long as you don't care what it costs to get your way on these issues, and have no interest in any others, that is. Dean will give you all of those things, and will do it while not increasing the deficit.
If you are not a one-issue voter, then there are better choices than Dean no matter what positions you hold.
Is he deserving of the Presidency?
No. His lack of experience in foreign and military matters overwhelms his domestic experience. He is inconsistent in most of his positions, and does not properly present his stance on the positions he is consistent on. He has shown a propensity to mislead and outright lie in order to attract voters. His temperment is not condusive to the job requirements.
Can he win the nomination?
He still has a good shot. However, he has to seriously repair the damage he has done to his own image in order to make a run. If he finishes anywhere below a strong second in New Hampshire, he's done.
If nominated, could he beat Bush?
Probably not. Dean's only chance would be to have his energized and loyal voter base encourage more people to turnout and vote. His followers and his presence on the internet would have to work together to create a propoganda machine the likes of which never before seen in America. That would still only give him a slim chance.
Final verdict:
Awful, irresponsible candidate. He's not the best candidate in the field, he has virtually no shot at beating Bush, and if elected President might very well dig a domestic and foreign policy hole that we would be hard pressed to get back out of. He has very serious credibility and moral issues, and if you are at all reasonable, you will find a better candidate to spend your vote on.
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